Scientists Predict Artificial General Intelligence Will Arrive by 2040 as Timeline Accelerates Dramatically
Summary
Scientists analyzing 8,590 predictions now expect artificial general intelligence to arrive by 2040, dramatically accelerating from previous 2060 estimates, while Anthropic's CEO suggests the singularity could occur within just three months.
Key Points
- Scientists analyze 8,590 predictions and find most experts believe artificial general intelligence will arrive before the end of the 21st century, with current surveys pointing to around 2040
- The timeline for AGI has accelerated dramatically since large language models emerged, shifting predictions from 2060 to 2040 for scientists and around 2030 for entrepreneurs
- Anthropic's CEO suggests the singularity could occur within approximately 3 months, representing the most aggressive prediction among industry leaders