Software Industry's 55-Year Quest to Replace Developers Continues Failing as AI Tools Hit Same Intellectual Barriers
Summary
Despite 55 years of promises from COBOL to AI tools, the software industry's recurring attempts to replace developers continue failing because the real bottleneck isn't typing speed or syntax complexity, but the intellectual challenge of handling complex business logic and edge cases that require human judgment.
Key Points
- Software industry repeatedly attempts to replace developers every decade since 1969, from COBOL promising business people could write programs to modern AI tools, yet the pattern consistently fails to eliminate the need for specialized developers
- Each technological wave (CASE tools in 1980s, Visual Basic in 1990s, low-code platforms, AI assistants) provides genuine value and reduces certain barriers, but cannot eliminate the fundamental complexity that requires human judgment and reasoning
- The constraint in software development is not mechanical (typing speed, syntax complexity) but intellectual - the thinking required to handle complex business logic, edge cases, and system integration that no tool can fully automate