AI Tools Are Tackling the COBOL Crisis as Veteran Developers Retire and Billions of Lines of Legacy Code Hang in the Balance
Summary
As veteran COBOL developers retire and billions of lines of legacy code power 95% of US ATM transactions, AI tools like Claude Code are now automating the most costly and complex phases of modernization, offering organizations a practical, incremental path forward before a critical skills gap becomes a full-blown crisis.
Key Points
- COBOL powers an estimated 95% of US ATM transactions and hundreds of billions of lines run in production daily, but the workforce that understands it is rapidly shrinking as veteran developers retire and few universities still teach the language.
- AI tools like Claude Code are breaking the cost barrier of COBOL modernization by automating the most labor-intensive phases — mapping dependencies, documenting forgotten workflows, and identifying hidden risks — tasks that once required years of consultant work.
- A recommended incremental approach pairs AI-driven code analysis and translation with human expert oversight for strategic planning, risk assessment, and validation, allowing organizations to modernize one component at a time and build confidence with each successful step.